Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Odds, Predictions, Starting Pitchers & Picks

Jun 1, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Twins third baseman Jose Miranda (64) talks with Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) during a stoppage in play during the seventh inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY SportsThe Minnesota Twins visit the Houston Astros on Sunday afternoon in the rubbermatch of a three-game setImpressive rookie Simeon Woods Richardson gets the ball for the Twins against sophomore Hunter Brown for the AstrosBelow, see the Twins vs Astros odds, starting pitchers, predictions, and picks

The finale of a three-game set between the Minnesota Twins (32-26, 16-13 away) and Houston Astros (26-33, 15-16 home) starts Sunday’s packed MLB slate at 12:05 pm CT/1:05 pm ET.

After Minnesota dominated the opener (6-1), Houston answered back with a 5-2 victory on Saturday. Both teams are desperate to stack up wins. They were preseason favorites to win their divisions, but the Twins are seven back of Cleveland in the AL Central while the Astros are 6.5 behind Seattle in the West.

Sunday’s Twins vs Astros odds favor the home team but the line is fairly tight.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Odds

The Astros are -135 moneyline favorites in Sunday’s MLB odds with the Twins listed at +114. The over/under is sitting at 8.5 with the over slightly favored (-115o/-105u). Each of the first two games featured seven runs and both stayed under their totals.

The Astros, whose offense has been less productive than expected, have been the best under bet in the league this year, going 21-35-3 O/U. Minnesota has also skewed to the under, going 25-31-2 in their first 58 games of the season.

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Odds as of June 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best MLB betting apps to wager on Sunday’s games.

Despite sitting seven games under .500, the Astros (+750) are still listed with the third-best odds to reach the World Series in the AL Pennant odds. Minnesota has faded to sixth at +1071, on average.

MIN vs HOU Starting Pitchers

Minnesota rookie Simeon Woods Richardson makes his ninth start of the season on Sunday, and the early returns for the 23-year-old have been rock solid. Woods Richardson hasn’t pitched too deep into many games (and has just a 2-0 record as a result) but he’s kept the vast majority of opponents in check, sporting a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP so far, though his strikeout percentage is just 18.4%.

This will be Wood Richardson’s first career start against the Astros and no one in the Houston lineup has ever faced him before.

In his last start, he went 5.0 innings in a 4-2 win over Kansas City, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks with four strikeouts.

Simeon Woods Richardson vs Hunter Brown

Woods RichardsonVSBrown

In his second full season with the ‘Stros, Hunter Brown has been the weak link in Houston’s starting rotation (again). The 25-year-old righty has a 6.39 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through 11 starts this year, though he has been trending up. Brown had a 9.34 ERA at the end of April, but he only allowed 10 runs over 26.2 innings in five starts in May, holding opponents to two runs or fewer in four of those five starts.

Brown’s most-recent start was his best of the year, throwing six innings of four-hit, no-walk, one-run ball in a 4-2 loss at Seattle.

He faced the Twins four times last year (two starts in the regular season and two relief appearances in the playoffs) and the results were a mixed bag. Minnesota’s 2024 lineup is hitting .297 against Brown but with a subpar .631 OPS. In 37 total at-bats, they have 11 hits and two walks, but all 11 of those hits were singles.

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Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Houston is playing better than it did at the start of the season, when the Astros compiled a 6-14 record through their first 20 games, but they haven’t looked like the World Series contender they were expected to be, and which they have been for the better part of a decade. Alex Bregman has taken a big step back, slashing .224/.283/.379, while former AL MVP Jose Abreu has been unplayable (.119/.167/.167).  Kyle Tucker has carried the offense with a .976 OPS and 19 home runs (which trails only Aaron Judge’s 20), and currently sits fifth in the AL MVP odds.

On the whole, I expect Woods Richardson to continue his early run of success. But I also expect an effective start from Brown, who – as mentioned – has pitched much better in the last month compared to his disastrous April. Fangraphs projects that the talented 25-year-old will lower his ERA to 4.02 by end of season and, even now, his xERA through 11 starts is only 4.04, indicating he’s been wildly unlucky.

MIN vs HOU picks:

NRFI (-115)Twins moneyline (+114)

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Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 14-10 (+0.42 units)