WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/12)

Welcome back to another Friday night of WNBA picks and predictions! We have a mini 3-game slate of WNBA action tonight as we dive into best bets. Check out these picks for the Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream and the Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks! 

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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Las Vegas Aces (-13) at Atlanta Dream €“ 167.5 O/U (-110/-110)

The largest point spread on Friday night features the Atlanta Dream hosting the Las Vegas Aces. It’s a matchup between one of the WNBA’s best teams and one of the worst. So, it’s understandable why the Aces are favored by double-digits on the road tonight. 

Any analysis of this game has to begin with the clear mismatch of offenses. Las Vegas leads the league in points per game (89.1), true shooting percentage (57.2%), and offensive rating. The Aces are also third in both three-point percentage (34.8%) and field-goal percentage (44.4%). This is the most potent offense in the WNBA that also plays at the fastest pace. 

On the other side, Atlanta is last in points per game (75.5), FG percentage (41.1%), and offensive rating. The Dream severely lack offensive playmakers with Allisha Gray (16.3 PPG) and Tina Charles (13.8 PPG) as the only trustworthy scorers. The supporting cast is inconsistent game-to-game, especially with Rhyne Howard still sidelined. 

The Aces, meanwhile, boast one of the best scoring trios in the WNBA with A’ja Wilson (26.9 PPG), Jackie Young (19.1), and Kelsey Plum (18.9) leading the way. Now the offense is even more potent with point guard Chelsea Gray back healthy. Since Gray returned a month ago, Las Vegas has been averaging 92.1 PPG over the past nine games. The Aces are also 8-1 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread in this stretch. 

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Both defenses are about league-average this season, but the big difference is on the offensive end. The Aces’ high-powered attack can stretch a lead out with the Dream struggling to keep up on the scoreboard. 

The Aces also have revenge on their mind after losing to the Dream, 78-74, back in May. Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite over the past six instances. Atlanta is just 9-12 ATS this season and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Dream are also only 2-8 ATS at home this year. 

WNBA Pick: Aces -13 (-110)

Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm (-5.5) €“ 153 O/U (-110/-110)

Friday night’s best matchup features two of the WNBA’s top squads. The Seattle Storm (14-8) host the Minnesota Lynx (16-6) with Western Conference bragging rights on the table. Let’s break down how to bet this entertaining game. 

As evidenced by a lower Over/Under than normal, the defense should set the tone on both ends of the floor. Minnesota is second in points allowed per game (73.9) and first in both opposing field-goal percentage (39.6%) and opposing three-point shooting (27.6%). The Lynx have ridden their elite defense all season while also being second in both steals (9.2) and blocks (5.1) per contest. 

Seattle also boasts a top-tier defense this season. The Storm are allowing 78.4 PPG (4th in WNBA) while holding opponents to 42.2% shooting from the field (3rd) and 32.1% from three-point range (4th). They also lead the league in both steals (9.5) and blocks (5.6) per game. 

Although both teams have talented scorers and above-average offenses, the defensive intensity should keep this game lower-scoring. This is a matchup between the first (Minnesota) and third (Seattle) defensive ratings in the league. The Lynx also play at the second-slowest tempo in the WNBA, which will force more methodical offensive possessions for the Storm. 

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The Storm are 13-9 to the Under this season with five of their last seven home games going Under. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 14-7-1 to the Under with seven of its last eight games hitting the Under. These teams have faced each other three times already this year with two of those finishing under the point total. 

WNBA Pick: Under 153 Total Points (-110)

For more information on how to bet futures, check out our Betting 101 series>>

Dan Servodidio