New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks, Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers

May 5, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos (8) rounds third and scores against the San Francisco Giants in the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY SportsThe Phillies will go for a rare 4-game sweep of the Mets on Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET.Jose Quintana takes the hill for the Mets against Taijuan Walker of the Phillies in the final game of this NL East series.See the predictions, odds and starters for Thursday’s rivalry game below.

It’s a showdown in Queens as the Phillies host the Mets on Thursday night at 6:40 p.m. ET in the finale of a 4-game NL East battle. The first 2 games took place in New York, with the second pair of contests, including Thursday’s matchup, taking place in Philadelphia. Here are our top picks for the important early season matchup.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions

Over 8.5 runsNick Castellanos over 1.5 total bases

Quintana has been shelled in recent outings, giving up 4+ earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. That includes allowing 8 earned runs at Tampa Bay on May 3. In fact, he’s given up 16 earned runs in only 13 innings in his last 3 starts on the road.

This will only be Walker’s fourth start of 2024, but outside of a game against a bad Marlins team, he hasn’t looked sharp. Expect plenty of runs to be scored in this game. I’d even consider betting over 9.5 runs if the odds are tasty enough.

As for Castellanos, he’s had more success against Quintana than any of his teammates. He’s gone 12-for-46 (.261) against Quintana in his career, posting 2 home runs and 7 RBI. If I can find his odds to have 2+ total bases at even odds (+100) or better, I’ll be betting it.

Let’s just hope Castellanos can manage to hit a home run on a day when no world-altering events happen.

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New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds via bet365 as of May 16. Use our bet365 bonus code SBDXLM to score $150 in bonus bets today.

If you think the Phillies will dominate Quintana and the Mets, the +140 juice on Philadelphia to win by 2+ runs is pretty tasty. The Mets are +125 on the moneyline, with the Phillies odds at -150. If you want to tail me and bet on 9 or more runs to be scored, you can get good odds at -105. Under 8.5 runs is currently at -115 at bet365.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Starters

As you can see above, the numbers favor the Philly hurler. But Walker hasn’t pitched as many innings as Quintana thus far. And though Walker’s record is perfect, he has been hit hard, as his 4.82 ERA indicates. He does have the edge in strikeout percentage, but the Mets have the ninth-lowest team strikeout rate in baseball.

Outside of a start against the Cardinals, Quintana has been … not good … recently. His ERA is north of 5.00 and his strikeout percentage is more than 4 points lower than Walker’s.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Series Results

The Phillies have owned the Mets this week, to put it lightly. The first game of the series on Monday was a narrow 5-4 victory for the home team.

On Tuesday, Philly used a 4-hit shutout from Aaron Nola to claim an easy 4-0 win in the last game in New York. On Wednesday night, the Phillies returned home, only to watch the Mets take an early lead. However, they came from behind to best the Mets 10-5.

The Phillies swept the Mets in 4 games last season, accomplishing the feat from Sept. 21-24 of last year. It’ll be up to Walker and his teammates to see if they can do it again for the second time in the span of a few months on Thursday.

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