Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Props to Bet

Oct 14, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) reacts after holding Arkansas Razorbacks to a loss of yardage during the fourth quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY SportsThe #11 Alabama Crimson Tide are 9-point home favorites over the #17 Tennessee Volunteers in their college football game slated for Saturday, October 21Alabama is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games facing TennesseeThe Volunteers are 6-2 ATS over their past eight games

The #11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1, 4-3 ATS) and #17 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 4-2 ATS) are only separated by six places in the college football rankings. On the football field, however, oddsmakers are viewing the gap between the two teams as being a much wider gulf.

The Crimson Tide are set as 9-point home favorites in the Tennessee vs Alabama odds for the latest renewal of this SEC rivalry that first was contested in 1903. Alabama is 9-0 straight up in the last nine home games against Tennessee.

Let’s dive more deeply into the Tennessee vs Alabama vs odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 8 SEC showdown.

Tennessee vs Alabama Odds

In the Tennessee vs Alabama odds, the Crimson Tide are -345 moneyline favorites, giving them an 77.53% implied win probability. The total is set at 49 points. That’s the lowest number for an over/under on a Volunteers vs Crimson Tide game since it was set at 48 points in 2015.

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Odds as of Oct. 18 at DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings Review before betting on Volunteers vs Crimson Tide and other college football Week 8 action this week.

Last year, Alabama lost outright 52-49 to Tennessee as the 9.5-point away chalk. It was their first outright loss to the Volunteers since 2006, ending a 15-0 straight up run of success by the Crimson Tide against Tennessee.

Kickoff for this game at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, October 21 is set for 3:30 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS.

Volunteers vs Crimson Betting Trends

In the college football public betting splits, while Alabama is unbeaten in the last nine home games against Tennessee, covering is an entirely different matter. The Crimson Tide are just 5-3-1 ATS over that same span of time. Overall, Alabama hasn’t lost at home to the Volunteers since 2003. Alabama is 11-4 SU all-time at home against Tennessee.

The last four games between these two schools showing a total of at least 62.5 points. It was 68 points in each of the past two meetings and the over hit both times. In six of the last seven games played in this series, the winning team has scored 45+ points, three times exceeding 50 points. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 Alabama vs Tennessee games.

Alabama is the co-eighth betting choice in the National Championship odds at +1800. Tennessee is given +15000 odds in this market.

Vols Will Seek To Ground Tide

Last year, it was an explosive Tennessee air attack that was sinking Alabama. Led by QB Hendon Hooker’s five TD passes, the games saw the Volunteers passing for 385 yards in their 52-39 victory.

Jaylen Wright: 8 Carries of 10+ Yards vs Texas A&M

Most by any Running Back in Week 7💨 pic.twitter.com/NpssSkNLXT

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 17, 2023

This year, Tennessee is all about the ground game and what a fine grind it’s been for the Vols. They’ve rushed for nearly 800 yards in the last three games. Tennessee suits up the #6 rushing attack in the nation, collecting 231.3 yards per game. The Volunteers are 5-0 SU this season when rushing for at least 160 yards.

Junior RB Jaylen Wright has run for 571 yards in six games. At -115, Wright going over his rushing yardage total of 54.5 yards looks like a solid play in the Tennessee vs Alabama player props.

They’ll get their sternest test of the season this week, though. Alabama is the #18 rush defense in the NCAA. The Tide are holding opposition ground assaults to 104.4 yards per game.

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Volunteers Pass Rush Problematic For Tide

Alabama doesn’t do well when it comes to protecting QB Jalen Milroe. The Crimson Tide are #129 in the nation in sacks allowed per game (4.43). Alabama is also #113 in tackles for loss allowed per game (7.14).

Bama QB Jalen Milroe was asked about UT's sack attack heading into Saturday's showdown in Tuscaloosa. "We don't care about none of that." @wvlt @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/edUvz8Zfi0

— Rick Russo (@wvltrick) October 18, 2023

That doesn’t bode well when facing a Tennessee defensive front that is pressuring QBs at an impressive rate. The Volunteers are #4 in the country in both sacks (4.0) and tackles for loss (8.6) per game.  Tennessee defensive lineman James Pearce Jr had a sack and two tackles for loss in last week’s win over Texas A&M. He’s recorded six sacks this season, good for 10th in the FBS.

That being said, Milroe going over his passing yardage prop of 226.5 yards is a play to make at -115. He’s thrown for more than that total in each of his past two games.

Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction

Alabama has been a winner in each of the past two weeks but was hardly impressive in beating Texas A&M by six points and Arkansas by three.

Tennessee is 3-1 ATS over the past two seasons when set as a betting underdog. Alabama should be winning a close one here, but take the Volunteers to cover.

Tennessee vs Alabama Pick: Tennessee +9 (-110)

 

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