Texas vs Tennessee Picks & Predictions

Mar 15, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Dalton Knecht (3) looks on from the sideline during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY SportsThe #7 Texas Longhorns play the #2 Tennessee Volunteers with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the lineRick Barnes was the head coach at Texas before taking the Tennessee job in 2015See below for Texas vs Tennessee picks and predictions for Saturday, March 23

The major storyline for Saturday’s round of 32 matchup between the #7 Texas Longhorns (21-12 SU, 13-20 ATS) and #2 Tennessee Volunteers (25-8 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) is the coaches. Current Tennessee boss Rick Barnes was the head coach at Texas from 1998 until he went to Knoxville in 2015. To add to the storyline, Texas head coach Rodney Terry was Barnes’s assistant at Texas from 2002 to 2011. Will the pupil or the mentor advance to the Sweet 16?

Texas won its first-round game against Colorado State, holding the Rams to just 11 first-half points and going on to win 56-44. Tennessee took care of business as large favorites against #15 Saint Peters. The game was never close as the Volunteers beat the Peacocks 83-49. Both teams are looking to get back to the Sweet 16 in consecutive years. Texas made it all the way to the Elite Eight last season, while Tennessee lost to FAU in the Sweet 16. Which team will move on in the Midwest region of this year’s March Madness bracket?

Texas vs Tennessee Odds

Saturday’s college basketball odds have Tennessee as 6.5-point favorites over Texas. The line opened at Tennessee -6, so the odds have shifted slightly. With -275 odds on the money, sportsbooks give Tennessee an implied win probability of 73.3%. The O/U in this matchup opened at 148 and has since dropped to 146.

Tennessee only trails Purdue when it comes to the Final Four odds in the Midwest region. The Volunteers are +350 to win the region, while Texas is all the way down at +1600 to make the Final Four.

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Odds as of March 22 at Fanatics. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to bet on Texas vs Tennessee on Saturday. 

Texas Betting Trends

Making its third consecutive second-round appearance, Texas is not ready to go home yet. The Longhorns lost two of their last three before getting that big win against Colorado State in the first round. Texas had been trending downward and lost in its first game of the Big 12 tournament to Kansas State.

The Longhorns went 13-20 against the spread this year, covering in five of eleven games as an underdog. They are also 0-5 against the spread in games where they were underdogs of 6.5 points or more. The over has hit in six of Texas’s last seven games. Texas is 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they use a balanced attack to score. The two leading scorers for Texas are Max Abmas and Dylan Disu. Abmas scores 17 points per game, and Disu scores just over 15. Disu is also shooting 46.4% from three.

Where Texas may find trouble in this game is on the defensive side of the basketball. The Longhorns are 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are going up against a Tennessee offense that averages just under 80 points per game.

Odds to Win March Madness 2025: NCAA Men’s Tournament Futures TrackerRead More

Tennessee Betting Trends

Tennessee wins with defense. The Vols are third in adjusted defensive efficiency and like to make opposing offenses uncomfortable. On offense, Dalton Knecht averaged 25.5 points per game in conference play this year and has the ability to take over a game at any moment. He would be the favorite in the Wooden Award odds if it wasn’t for Zach Edey.

Tennessee’s offense is not only Knecht though. Santiago Vescovi can shoot the three ball, while Zakai Zeigler is a great point guard who averages six assists and nearly two steals per game. The Volunteers are physical on the inside as well with Jonas Aidoo, who is averaging close to eight rebounds and two blocks a game.

The Volunteers needed the Saint Peters game as a get-right spot. Tennessee was one of the hottest teams down the stretch and won nine of its last ten games before losing their regular-season finale to Kentucky. They then lost in their first game of the SEC Tournament to Mississippi State. Knecht dropped 23 points and eight rebounds in Tennessee’s win over Saint Peters.

Texas vs Tennessee Prediction

How Texas’s offense matches up against Tennessee’s defense will decide the game. Tennessee’s offense was disrupted against Mississippi State and Texas just played lights out defense against Colorado State, but I still give the edge to Knecht and the Volunteers. Even when Tennessee misses their shots, they have a huge advantage on the glass. Tennessee is 35th in the country in rebounds per game, while Texas is 219th.

Disu and Texas’s offense will have a difficult time scoring against Tennessee and with the rebounding disadvantage, the Longhorns will not get many second-chance opportunities. That will also over to how their defense. The Volunteers will be ready to go and should cruise to the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.

Pick: Tennessee -6.5 (-110)

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