Three NFL Week 12 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 12 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 12 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

November 22, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Justin Herbert is dealing with lots of changes (Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 12 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 12 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 1-2 for -0.7 units2023 Season: 11-22 for -4.4 units

We hit a big upset pick last week, with a bit of fortune, and came close in two others that went the other way. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Philadelphia (+125) came back from a 10-point deficit as Kansas City’s second half woes continued, winning 21-17.Arizona (+185) had the ball three different times in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead, and failed on fourth down each time in Texans’ territory, losing 21-16.Pittsburgh (-105, but +1 point spread) lost a defensive slugfest 13-10 when the Browns got a field goal in the final seconds.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 12, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 12 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Moneyline: +105Point Spread: +1.5

This is our highest-rated playable moneyline underdog pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Houston Texans are playing for first place in the AFC South, something that you would not have believed at the start of the season. If Houston can win this game, they will complete a season sweep of the Jaguars, and be tied at 7-4.

The other rather unbelievable thing is that Houston has been the better passing team of these two, ranking 3rd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt. The Texans were even able to win a game despite three C.J. Stroud interceptions last week, as he passed for over 300 yards for the third game in a row.

We’ll take the home underdog with the explosive passing game in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Moneyline: +155Point Spread: +3.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and also our top-rated spread pick at the +3.5 number.

The Chargers fell again in a close game last week, after a big dropped pass late against the Packers, and are now 2-5 in games decided by one score. LAC now returns home a desperate team, as a loss would make them a long shot to get into the postseason. (We have them at 17% to make it, heading into this week.)

The Ravens’ defensive numbers have been extremely good (and regression in those areas are a part of the model factors here), but recently they’ve been coming down off of some of those extreme highs. Baltimore has allowed 20 first downs in three of its last four matchups, after not allowing that many in any of the first seven games of the season.

Add in that Baltimore will be without star tight end Mark Andrews, and we’ll take a shot on the Chargers in this one.

Chicago Bears (at Minnesota Vikings)

Moneyline: +158Point Spread: +3.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick and spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Chicago got QB Justin Fields back last week, and for 56 minutes of the game things looked pretty good. The Bears had Detroit on the ropes, down two scores, but couldn’t close it out.

But the Bears should be better off on offense now that Fields is back, and the defense has been quietly playing really well (particularly the rush defense).

Last week, against a strong Lions team, was the first time since Week 3 that the Bears had allowed their opponent to rush for 100 yards as a team. They have allowed only 3.0 yards per rush and 59 rush yards per game over the last seven games, and their opponents have only scored two rushing touchdowns over that span.

Those strong rush defense numbers for the underdog are a big part of the model factors in this game, where we will take the Bears to play another division opponent tough.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No

NFL Week 12 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 12 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 12 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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