Three NFL Week 4 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 4 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 4 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

September 27, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Our Upset Picks look like the Denver defenders so far (Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

Hitting an NFL Week 4 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

Thus begins our quest to identify which underdogs will truly have that dog in them during NFL Week 4. In this article, we pick our three favorite NFL Week 4 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for some important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units2023 Season: 1-8 for -6.8 units

Yet another week where the picks we posted performed poorly once the ball is snapped, this time no thanks to some key injury news. We have now gotten closing line value on 7 of 9 picks posted, but are in an early hole in terms of results. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

The LA Rams (+120) ended up facing Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow, who played on Monday Night, but a bigger factor was the Rams losing starting left tackle Alaric Jackson to a first half injury and giving up six sacks in a 19-16 loss.Carolina (+215) got better offensive production as Andy Dalton started for an injured Bryce Young, but 13 costly penalties, including several late, led to a 37-27 defeat at Seattle.After a promising first two games, Tampa Bay (+187) got dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, losing 25-11 to Philadelphia.

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To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 4, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 4 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

New England Patriots (at Dallas Cowboys)

Moneyline: +240Point Spread: +6.5

This is currently our top playable moneyline pick and a borderline playable point spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

New England has allowed 811 total yards, very similar to Dallas’ 786 yards allowed, even though the Patriots have played the talented Eagles and Dolphins offenses, while the Cowboys have played the Giants and Cardinals. (Both teams also played the Jets with Zach Wilson at QB).

The difference so far is in turnovers and other high leverage plays that are less predictive, as Dallas is 1st in our adjusted net turnovers metric, while New England ranks near the bottom. So regression would benefit New England.

Dallas also lost CB Trevon Diggs for the season and struggled in allowing some big plays to the Cardinals in the Week 3 loss.

Other model factors include the Patriots’ defensive efficiency at stopping both the run and pass in recent games, as well as fumble recovery rates. Dallas’ relatively poor rush defense is also now allowing 5.4 yards per carry after giving up several big runs last week against Arizona.

Tennessee Titans (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Moneyline: +115Point Spread: +2

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Tennessee is coming off an ugly offensive performance against Cleveland, scoring only 3 points and having less than 100 yards. Of course, Cincinnati had their own ugly performance against the Browns in Week 1, and Cleveland has been the most dominant defense in the league.

While Joe Burrow did play Monday Night, he still isn’t right in terms of being in form, while battling his calf injury. He averaged just over five yards per attempt in the win over the Rams, which came more on the strength of Cincinnati’s defensive performance.

Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the league in total yards after three weeks, and this should be a matchup where both defensive lines have the edge. The Titans are currently giving up only 2.6 yards per rush, and the Bengals haven’t been good at picking up first downs via the rush.

Miami Dolphins (at Buffalo Bills)

Moneyline: +133Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Although it’s a bit of a trendy upset pick this week, it’s not often you can get the NFL’s No. 1 team in points scored and yards gained, which is averaging over 10 net yards per pass attempt, at an underdog price. Nor has Miami been benefitting from extreme luck factors in its early victories.

The Bills have played really well on defense, but those performances have come against teams with Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Sam Howell at QB. Miami can challenge the Bills with a different level of offensive speed, and wintry weather won’t be a factor this early in the year in Buffalo.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Picks To Date

Week	Team	Opponent	Wed ML	Closing ML	Result	Line Value
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes

NFL Week 4 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 4 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 4 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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