Three NFL Week 8 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 8 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 8 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

October 25, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Russell Wilson will try to spring a big upset in Week 8 (Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Hitting an NFL Week 8 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

In this article, we make our three favorite Week 8 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 2-1 for +1.3 units2023 Season: 7-14 for -5.0 units

We hit on two of the three picks last week, but missed out on the bigger upset. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Atlanta (+120) almost fumbled it away in the fourth quarter, but managed to salvage a win with a game-ending field goal, 16-13.Denver (+105) closed as the betting favorite, and managed to win on a fourth-quarter field goal, 19-17, after squandering a 16-3 second-half lead.Arizona (+298) squandered several opportunities to catch Seattle late, including a missed field goal and missed fourth down, and lost 20-10.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 8, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 8 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Houston Texans)

Moneyline: +139Point Spread: +3

This is currently one of our top playable moneyline underdog picks and a playable point spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Carolina is winless and coming off their bye (as is Houston). The Panthers have struggled on offense at the start of Bryce Young’s career, but equally disappointing has been the rush defense, which is 28th in yards per carry and 31st in rush yards allowed. Fortunately, that’s something that can regress, and they also get Houston, a team that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rushing offense efficiency.

We’ll grab the underdog playing for its first win, and going against a favorite not use to playing in that role on the road, who has struggled to run the ball.

Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Moneyline: +280Point Spread: +7

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

We’ll make the Denver Broncos an upset play for the second week in a row, but this would be a much bigger long shot to hit against the Chiefs, winners of six straight.

The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was in September of 2015, when Peyton Manning was still playing. But they’ve actually played them tough in the last few years, covering three of the last four as big underdogs, and just missing the cover in the earlier matchup a few weeks ago, when Kansas City scored late to beat the spread by a half-point.

Denver held Kansas City to 19 points two weeks ago, and have been playing better on defense since the disastrous stretch against Miami and Chicago. So we’ll take a chance on the a lengthy streak coming to an end at these long shot odds.

Cleveland Browns (at Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +160Point Spread: +3.5

This is not a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, but we are adding it as a pick this week based on our view that the market has overreacted to Deshaun Watson likely not playing, and his value in general, given how unique this situation has been with Watson’s suspension and then injuries this year.

Based on our full season power ratings, Cleveland would be favored by 2.1 points on a neutral field. Add in home field, and this is closer to a pick’em. Those ratings include all the games, including the start by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson and two games played by P.J. Walker. It also includes the games where Watson played (and generally not very well.)

This Browns’ team is driven by a defense that still ranks 1st in yards allowed, and is coming off a game where they allowed some uncharacteristic big plays. They have arguably the best pass defense in the NFL (and one of the worst pass offenses).

So we are going to ride with the 4-2 Browns’ defense and Myles Garrett getting points here.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 8 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 8 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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